By Mike McGann, Editor, The Times @mikemcgannpa
Sad news this week with the passing of Dave McLimans, president of the Chester County AFL-CIO Council.
I’ve been lucky enough to know Dave for a couple of decades — he was the living example of “gruff, but lovable.” As the leading voice for union workers in the county, he was a key player in county Democratic politics.
But he was more than that, he was a straight shooter, a rarity in today’s politics.
If he made you a promise as a candidate or campaign, you could always count on him to come through. If he couldn’t do something, he’d be up front. If he thought you — or your campaign — were screwing up, he’d let you know in no uncertain terms. But, also, if he said he had your back, he did, always.
Unlike a lot of other people in politics who kiss your butt, promise you the moon and then trash you privately and deliver nothing, Dave was always there, working to elect people who would better represent his union brothers and the workers of Chester County. In fact, he wrote an Op/Ed, which appears on these pages just a couple of weeks ago, talking about why veterans — Dave served in VietNam — should support the reelection of U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr.
Dave labored through the days when Democratic politics in Chester County seemed hopeless — and his dogged work on behalf of the party played a big role in the transformation from doormat to Democrats dominating county politics.
He’d probably shrug off all this praise and tell everyone to get back to work — there’s an election coming. But I can say confidently, Dave will be missed.
I want to send condolences to his wife Stephanie — also a key player in county politics for decades — and Dave’s family.
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With less than two weeks before the election, I get a lot of questions about how I think things are going — so I’m happy to share what I’m seeing.
What a difference 12 years make.
In 2012, Chester County’s Republicans ran a well-organized, disciplined race of behalf of Mitt Romney — who would go on to win Chester County by less than a point — four years after Barack Obama won the county for the first time for Democrats since Lyndon Johnson won the county in 1964.
Democrats were somewhat disorganized and maybe a bit overconfident after making strides in 2008. But the county’s Republicans ran a massive field and Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort to push back the blue tide. Although the Tea Party elements in the party were starting to drive wedges in the local GOP, the party was able to hold it together to win in 2012.
Flash forward to 2024: Democrats dominate the county, electorally and seem finally to be getting more organized and professional. The Democratic field/GOTV operation is by far the best I’ve ever seen in this county. I’ve gotten multiple, multiple “touches” (texts, mail, phone and doors) from local Democrats to make sure I (and my family) vote.
It is safe to say, I’ve had more “touches” this year than in all of my previous Chester County elections combined, going back to 1999. It is an impressive effort and it appears to be replicated around the commonwealth.
The GOP has no field operation to speak of. Much has been outsourced — at the preference of the Trump Campaign — and it appears underfunded, poorly managed and largely impotent.
The polls have the statewide race as close — essentially a tie. I don’t want to get into the polling, there seems to be a lot of issues with both sampling and modeling. I take most numbers, no matter who they favor, with a large grain of salt.
But that having been said, and stipulating a close race, field/GOTV is a massive difference maker. One party having a tight, efficient and thorough program and one not having anything like that can make a big difference in turnout, maybe taking a tie and pushing it to a two-point win (or more).
With more money, more volunteers and true coordination, the Democrats have a big edge both here in Chester County and statewide. It may prove determinative, in terms of who wins Pennsylvania (and in turn, the overall election).
Two questions remain: first, can Democrats finally run the table and sweep all of the state legislative seats? Although no easy task, both of the races in the 13th and 160th are close and fierce and I think Democrats have at least a puncher’s chance to win both (this is a departure from 2022 and 2020, when those seats were well of out reach for Democrats). I don’t see any Democratic incumbent threatened — and the national voting environment should provide a tailwind.
So the final question: What will the margin look like in Chester County at the top of the ticket?
Hillary Clinton won by about 9% in 2016 over Trump. Joe Biden won by 17% over Trump in 2020. Can Kamala Harris beat Trump by more than 20% in 2024?
Clearly, yes. The voters of Chester County really dislike Donald Trump — his candidacy led to the effective destruction of the Chester County Republican Committee as an operating organization. Over the last eight years it has devolved into a mere shell of itself, largely unable to do the basic blocking and tackling of politics.
So, again, more than 20%? Yes. I’m guessing 22%.
We shall see — but the trend line in Chester County seems pretty clear.
If you haven’t voted yet, make sure you have a plan to make your voice heard.
